Kinetic Alpha is an autonomous agent that generates +EV trading signals for entertainment markets on Polymarket. It ingests alternative data the crowd ignores, and finds the edge before they catch up.
YouTube API view counts at 24h, 48h, and 7d intervals. Like/dislike ratios. NLP comment sentiment distinguishing genuine hype from meme-mockery.
TikTok hashtag growth curves and Twitter/X mention velocity, compared against historical baselines of known over-performers and under-performers.
Scraped seat-map data from bellwether AMC locations in LA, NY, and major suburbs. Organic ticket pre-sale estimation starting two weeks before release.
Continuous ingestion of Polymarket YES/NO share prices. When our True Probability diverges from Implied Probability, the signal fires.
Continuously pull trailer metrics, social velocity, and pre-sale signals for every film with an active Polymarket contract. 60 days pre-release through resolution.
Synthesize all data streams into a single probability estimate. Weight velocity (rate of change) over absolute numbers. The crowd reacts to headlines. We react to acceleration.
Compare True Probability against Polymarket's Implied Probability. When the delta exceeds our confidence threshold, the signal fires. Mathematical, emotionless.
Kelly Criterion determines sizing: Conservative, Moderate, or Aggressive based on edge confidence. No overexposure. The system protects capital as aggressively as it deploys it.
They trade crypto and politics. None of them specialize in entertainment. The box office market is mispriced because nobody has built the data pipeline to price it correctly. Until now.